Where We Are Compared To Last Season

I thought this might be interesting, especially with slightly contrasting approaches to how we’ve approached the (now closed) transfer window.

This season, after 26 games, we have 31 points. Scored 24 and conceded 30 (GD -6). Last season, after 26 games… we also had 31 points. Scored 31, conceded 34 (GD -3).

You can discuss what has been said in this article HERE, and get involved with many other topics on our 100% Imps forum!

We have also published a 20-question quiz about January 2023. Just how much can you remember from last month’s matches? Have a go at this quiz HERE or at the bottom of the page!

Few differences though:

– We had just won 3 in 4 at this point (beating Oxford at home, Sunderland away and Plymouth away).

– Last season we went big early in January – by the time we beat Plymouth away, we were starting Marquis, Cullen and Whittaker, and Brooke Norton-Cuffy came off the bench.

– The gap to the relegation zone is 6 points. After Melbourne’s stoppage-time winner at Plymouth, it was 4. So that’s positive.

– However, less sides look dead and buried. Last season, at this point the relegation zone was Morecambe (27), Crewe (22), Doncaster (19), Gillingham (18). The three teams who looked dead and buried did all go down, alongside Wimbledon who were just out of the relegation zone at that point (28). This season, Accrington, Burton, Cambridge United all sit on 25; in a better position should they put a run together as Gillingham did late, while Forest Green are bottom on 21. Accrington have a game in hand over us (last year, Morecambe had played one game more in 21st).

– Last season, we finished on 52 points from this position – that was a good, 12 points clear of Gillingham in 21st (40). If we continued our exact points per game from this season (1.19) for the rest of the season (so an improvement on recent form but equal to how we fared across the season as a whole) we would finish on approx. 55 points. One win better than last season and over the last decade or so, the highest that has gone down is 50.

– If we were to continue our recent form (say the last 10 games, where we have taken 9 from 10, going back to before Plymouth at home/beating Morecambe) and took 18 from 20, that would obviously be very close – on 49 pts. Down in several recent League One league seasons.

– One difference is that at the onset of January last time, we were in more bother on paper (before those three wins) – after MK Dons on Boxing Day, on 22 pts from 22 and 2 pts clear) but a small if not spectacular improvement saw us well safe including those 3 January wins.

This obviously isn’t a particularly extensive or comprehensive analysis, but I guess my conclusion is that any sort of minor improvement in points won compared to the start of the season to now would probably see us safe relatively comfortably (i.e., wholesale improvement not required for safety)- but if the form continued as per November onwards we would be in considerable bother. So I guess we have to hope MK can get a bit more out of the squad and the new players make a small enough difference to eek out better form than recently, and we would be okay…

Writer: Rasenimp

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