With two months of the new season gone, it is time to crunch some numbers. Exactly how tough has the fixture list been for each League One club?
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You know the method by now: take each team in turn and add up the current league position of every side they have played this season, divided by the number of games played. This calculation produces the average league position of each opponent, home and away.
For example, if you have played the teams in 6th and 10th at home, you have an average home opponent score of 8.00.
The lower the average score, the harder your fixtures have been. Therefore, the teams at the top of the following three tables have had the toughest fixtures, those at the bottom the easiest.
- If your team is near the bottom of both the League One table and the OVERALL table below, start worrying – it means you are struggling despite having had an easy set of fixtures.
- Conversely, if your team is near the top of both, a good season may well be in the offing because you have done well from a challenging set of fixtures.
- However, if you are high in the League One table but low in these three tables, are you only doing well because your fixtures have been kind?
- And the opposite could be true: if you are in the lower reaches of League One but high in these tables, your league position should improve once the easier fixtures come along.
One caveat to consider must be the uneven nature of League One this season due to Covid postponements, which skews the following tables in the sense that some clubs have an unbalanced number of games played at home and away. For instance, Oxford have played 6 away but only 3 at home at the time of writing. I have given the number of games played in the end column.
So, let’s split the numbers between home and away fixtures first.
As a reminder, the clubs at the top have had the hardest fixtures.
- Only Rochdale and Sunderland have had harder home fixtures than Lincoln.
- Leaders Peterborough have had an unbelievably easy start at home, having played four of the bottom five; they have played only one side in the top half at home.
- Of the other teams in the top ten, Ipswich, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Charlton and Fleetwood have had easier than average home fixtures.
- Lincoln, Sunderland and Hull would appear to be well-placed in the league after a challenging home schedule; Lincoln have played four of the other top seven clubs, the most of any team in League One.
- Of the strugglers, Wigan, Northampton and MK Dons have had tough home fixtures.
Shrewsbury should be very afraid: despite all five of their home games being against teams in the bottom half, they sit third from bottom of League One.
And now for the AWAYS; remember the teams at the top have had the hardest fixtures:
- So the Imps have had a slightly easier than average set of away fixtures in League One.
- Rochdale have had the toughest set of home fixtures and the easiest away.
- Crewe have had a tough away schedule, although they have only played four games; all four have been against sides in the top nine.
- Swindon have played four challenging away fixtures, and are the only side in the division without a point away from home.
- Portsmouth have the best away record in League One, from an average set of away fixtures.
So, putting all of that together, who has had the hardest start? Remember – the teams at the top of this table have had the hardest fixtures.
- Of the other sides in the top ten, Plymouth have had the second easiest fixtures, and have played six at home and only four away; that may explain their promising start to the season.
- Hull are well-placed in the league table despite having played four at home and six away, although they have not been difficult fixtures so far.
- Oxford have had the most difficult set of fixtures in the league, and to compound matters they have played three at home and six away; considering their problems with Covid postponements, expect them to move steadily up the league table as the season progresses.
- Accrington have played only seven games, making it difficult to assess their start. Perhaps the most significant effect of that will be fixture congestion in an already congested season.
None of this may actually amount to very much of course, as there is an unavoidable subjectivity to it due to the small number of games played. However, these numbers may explain why some teams have made better starts than others, and why some may be languishing. Who might be in a false position? More importantly, it gives us an idea of which sides may start to climb the table once they reach clearer waters in the fixture list; and perhaps an indication of who might slip in the opposite direction once their waters start to muddy.
Up to and including 3 November 2020.
Writer: Scotimp
Have a go at our Lincoln City v Forest Green Rovers Quiz below:
So Who Has Had The Toughest Start?
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